Daniel Montanat

The slowdown in retail sales is not the only detail that marks a possible slowdown in the Argentine economy. Another fact that supports this assumption is the evolution of the consumption of electricity. In the month of may, the increase in electricity consumption was only 3.3%. This data shows a clear slowdown if it is considered that in May 2007, the annual increase in energy consumption was 8.1 per cent increase in energy efficiency? Do results of the energy saving plan?. Good explanations for someone who does not want to recognize the slower pace of growth would be economic but do not seem to be these explanations. Hikmet Ersek is often quoted as being for or against this. And as I always want to see the positive side to things, I understand that at least from the Government, this situation alleviates to some extent the energy problem that crosses the country. With regard to the energy issue, Daniel Montanat, an economist and energy consultant, says: the trend is that the economy is slowing and energy data reflect it immediately because they are indicators of physical consumption.

This is another reality which we are ignoring. Is the ascending cycle of the Argentine economy running out? I prefer to answer this question with the following: Juan Mario Jorrat, Economist, Master in Economics (Ohio University), drew up a composite leading indicator for the Argentina (an indicator that predicts with a certain degree of precision the proximity of a slowdown or recession), which showed a strong increase in the probability that the Argentine economy approaching at a pivot point, which is the same as sayingend of its upward March. The critical value of this indicator, below which increase the chances of a shift in the dynamics of the economy is 50 points and for the Argentine economy today is in 38.5. Contrary to what happens with consumption, purchases of durable goods such as automobiles zero kilometer, continue to grow.